White candidate poised to enter special election contest in historic black district

When Bryan Flannery moved south from Strongsville to Summit County in 2007, he likely had no expectation that he might have a political future in Cleveland’s storied 11th Congressional District. Now, thanks to the gerrymandering technique known as “packing”, employed ten years ago to corral the maximum number of black voters into Rep. Marcia Fudge’s 11th Congressional District, the former state rep and onetime statewide ballot candidate may have an alley that will allow the Bath Township resident a path to end the more than fifty year run of black dominance of the district’s political affairs.

Flannery told the Real Deal Press last week that he was “evaluating” whether to join the increasingly crowded field to succeed Fudge, who is poised to resign the seat upon her expected confirmation as U. S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

To date, announced candidates include former state representative John Barnes, Cuyahoga County councilwoman and county Democratic Party chair Shontel Brown, former state senators Jeff Johnson and Shirley Smith, and Nina Turner, also a former state senator but now best known for her role as U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders’s chief political surrogate these past five years.

Others known to be considering the race are state rep Stephanie Howse and Brown’s colleague on county council, Yvonne Conwell.

For the past two months or so, Flannery has been assessing the race, crisscrossing the district in a “listening tour”, working to introduce himself to business and nonprofit executives whose support he will need when he announces his decision.

Political posturing aside, Flannery is pretty much a sure bet to announce his candidacy within hours of a Fudge resignation, petition signatures in hand, campaign apparatus in place, and funding in place.

Notwithstanding a thin and ancient political resume — he’s likely better known as a member of the 1988 Notre Dame national championship football team than as a former state rep from 1998-2002 — Flannery will be viable as the first, if not the only white candidate, against a likely contingent of at least five blacks in a district that is nearly half white. At present he would be the only candidate from Summit County, whose northern portion comprises about 46.5 percent of the District, according to the current registered voter rolls of the two counties.

Perhaps most consequentially, the day he declares will be the moment he is positioned as the ABN (Anyone But Nina) candidate, a role we predicted two months ago.

The charter members of the ABN coalition* were not fully apparent in December, but they are now clear: the group comprises key elements of the business and Jewish communities. While corporate interests are uncomfortable with Turner’s fiercely populist rhetoric in favor of progressive policies like Medicare for All and a $15/hour minimum wage, politically active elements of the district’s sizable Jewish constituency are  uncomfortable with Turner’s human rights focus on the Israeli Palestinian conflict. And conservatives in both the business and Jewish communities are leery of Turner joining the growing ‘Squad’ in Congress, whose charter members include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ayanna Pressley, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan.

Flannery’s entry into the race is likely to be most impactful on Shontel Brown’s chances to emerge from what is likely to be a bruising primary. Brown campaign launched with the advantages of her being Fudge’s presumptive choice and the insider’s favorite to win the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party endorsement. But neither of those assumptions may pan out, and multiple sources have told us that her relative campaign inexperience has led money sources to want an unusual degree of control over her campaign strategy. These efforts have been rebuffed, sources say and as a result Brown may fall short of the amount needed to be competitive.

Special elections often tend to be low turnout affairs. In the last presidential mid-term year of 2018, Fudge won an uncontested Democratic primary with 65,905 votes. In a short campaign in the midst of a pandemic, it might be optimistic to think half that number will turn out, meaning the winner’s total could barely scrape the 10,000 plateau. With so many candidates scrambling for Cuyahoga voters, a Summit County candidate could have an advantage. This in turn could make the endorsement of House Minority Leader Emilia Sykes crucial, should she choose to get involved.  

The field is not set, and other candidates may enter, even as some announced candidates back away. But Flannery on the ballot has already altered the calculus.

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*We originally dubbed this group “Anybody But Turner”. We have since renamed their effort, given that almost everyone, friend and foe alike, refers to her simply as “Nina”.