During the primary campaign, Kevin Coughlin — now the Republican nominee for Ohio’s 13th Congressional District — committed to pursuing entitlement reform if he’s elected.

“And I know the Democrats are cheering right now that they’re hearing me say that,” Coughlin said. He argued “anyone with eyes and an honest heart” can understand the simple math problem — money is going out the door faster than it’s getting replaced.

He specifically referenced Social Security and Medicaid, which provides health care for people with lower incomes. But Medicare, which provides health care for seniors and some people with disabilities, is typically included in debates about entitlement reform.

Recent projections from the U.S. Treasury indicate the Social Security and Medicare trust funds will become insolvent in 2034 and 2031 respectively.

“(They’re) going to go broke very, very quickly, which isn’t going to mean that (programs are) going to go away, but it’s going to mean that the benefits that people get are going to be cut,” Coughlin argued.

“You have to start thinking about the sustainability of those programs for people who really need them,” he went on. “And so there’s got to be real adult conversations about these things, and proposals put forward with binding votes for Congress to vote on.”

Coughlin’s argument is right in line with decades of Republican doctrine, but maybe not the party’s current standard bearer.

“I made a promise that I will always keep Social Security, Medicare — we always will keep it, we won’t be cutting it,” former President Donald Trump told Dayton rallygoers last March.

Despite insisting from his earliest days as a presidential candidate that he would “save” the big three entitlement programs “without cuts,” last month in a CNBC interview Trump said “there is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting.” He hinted at cuts in 2020 as well.

Where Republicans stand

Although Trump has waffled on the issue, Coughlin comes by his position honestly. Back in 2011, when he was flirting with a U.S. Senate run, he made a similar case. Coughlin voiced support for a handful of ideas backed by U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-WI, who had been tapped as Mitt Romney’s vice presidential pick and would go on to become House Speaker during the Trump administration.

Those changes include converting Medicare into a voucher program for anyone under 55 at the time. The proposal would also steadily raise the eligibility age to 67 — a position which Coughlin now opposes. Coughlin also pledged support for a balanced budget proposal that would cap spending in such a way that cuts to Medicare and Social Security would likely be unavoidable.

In a written statement for this story, Coughlin blamed the programs’ balance sheets on Democrats, and expressed concerns that “they’ll resort to benefit cuts” to address shortfalls.

“These important programs are going broke because Democrats used them as their personal piggy bank and raided them for wasteful spending and pet projects,” he wrote. “We have to shore up these programs by cutting waste fraud and abuse, not cutting benefits, raising taxes or the retirement age.”

Trump has also used waste fraud and abuse as a fig leaf after backlash to his public comments. But while independent experts contend waste and fraud are significant problems in Medicaid and Medicare, they question whether there’s enough to balance the books. For Social Security, they insist eliminating waste and fraud would do little to close the gap. In a different version of that math problem, they note there are simply too many retirees and not enough workers.

And Couhglin is not alone in raising the idea of entitlement reform.

Early in this year’s U.S. Senate race, all three of Ohio’s Republican candidates floated changes to entitlements.

State Sen. Matt Dolan, R-Chagrin Falls, was the most explicit. “To have a discussion about spending,” he said, “yes, we’re going to have to recognize we have to reform these entitlements.” Dolan insisted none of the attendees should “sweat” over losing benefits. “But look at the front table here,” he added, “see these young people? I want to make sure that they’re not afraid.”

Sec. of State Frank LaRose said Social Security and Medicaid are “worth looking at,” but warned changes must ensure people within a few decades of becoming beneficiaries aren’t affected. Bernie Moreno, who wound up winning the nomination, insisted Social Security isn’t an entitlement because workers pay into the program, but he criticized the expansion of Medicaid.

In a written statement, Moreno’s campaign reiterated his commitment to opposing cuts to Medicare or Social Security. “Important programs that Americans have spent their lives paying into like Social Security and Medicare should never be put in jeopardy,” he argued. Moreno added that he doesn’t support cutting Medicaid for Americans who are “truly in need,” but he criticized states like California that have extended benefits to undocumented immigrants.

“Which is something that we need to put a stop to immediately,” he said, “The American taxpayer eventually foots the bill.”

Entitlement reform plans in black and white

While Coughlin emphasizes waste fraud and abuse, incumbent lawmakers have floated plans to roll back entitlements more broadly in recent years. They’ve just failed to gain traction.

Recall President Joe Biden needling Republicans during the 2023 State of the Union over plans to make Medicare and Social Security sunset. Despite some Republicans’ jeers, that idea came from a platform advanced by U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-FL. He’s since revised the proposal to exempt the programs.

More recently, the Republican Study Committee unveiled its 2024 budget plan which proposes raising the eligibility age for Social Security without specifying what age is appropriate, and converting Medicare to a voucher system. Eight members of Ohio’s Congressional delegation are part of the committee.

What changes would mean in Ohio

“Well, the real question is are we our brothers’ keepers or not,” Jack Frech, the retired director of the Athens County Department of Job and Family Services, said.

After more than three decades there, he served as an executive in residence focused on poverty issue at the Voinovich School at Ohio University.

“And you know it’s interesting that we take a very selective view of math,” Frech said of arguments about entitlement programs’ solvency. “We could also look at the fact that over the same time frame the richest people in this country have gotten ridiculously richer.”

“You know, that’s math, too,” he said.

And while he acknowledged Republicans have put a lot of effort into cutting entitlement programs, Democrats are far from blameless.

“Let’s remember on issues like cash assistance and some of these other programs, it was Bill Clinton and the Democrats whose reform measures ended up resulting in drastic, drastic reductions in assistance through those programs,” he said.

“It’s not as though anybody’s out there who deserves a gold star for the great job they’ve done helping poor people,” Frech said.

He explained programs like Social Security and Medicare provide a lifeline to Ohioans, but they don’t provide a comfortable living. The average monthly Social Security check is about $1,900. The poverty line for an individual breaks down to $1,255 a month.

But the impact doesn’t stop with individuals, he said. “There are communities in southeast Ohio that I’ve looked into that have as much as 70-80% of the medical income they have is coming from those programs.” Similarly, he noted transfer payments make up as much as a quarter of local income in some southeast Ohio counties.

“These are real people who are already struggling,” Frech said, “and you’re basically saying we’re going to solve our financial problem by taking services away from them.