Next week’s filing deadline makes this a good time to examine race

Special Congressional races are unusual almost by definition. They occur outside the normal political cycle, and oftentimes attract a higher number of candidates, especially in the party that dominates the district. Just over a week remains until the May 5 filing deadline to be on the Democratic Party primary ballot for the chance to win the party’s nod to replace former representative Marcia Fudge, who resigned the seat upon her confirmation as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

The core of the District has been solidly Democratic and largely African American ever since it was configured as Ohio’s 21^st District in 1968. The seat was redrawn that year following litigation that found the state’s legislative leaders — from both parties — had conspired to divide black voters and thereby avoid drawing a district that would naturally favor the election of a black candidate.

Shifts in the population on all levels — in northeast Ohio, around the state and across the nation — suggest that this will be the last Congressional election when the 11^th District is majority black. Population shuffles following the Great Recession of 2008, Ohio’s lagging growth rate, and today’s announcement from the 2020 Census that the state’s delegation for the next decade will drop to fifteen from the current sixteen, strongly suggest that, when its boundaries are redrawn late this year or early next, the District's percentage of black residents will slip somewhere below 50%.

As of today, 14 potential candidates have pulled petitions to enter the Democratic primary. Seven of them — John Barnes, Jr., Shontel Brown, Bryan Flannery, Jeff Johnson, Tariq K. Shabazz, Shirley Smith, and Nina Turner — have participated in at least two of the four candidate forums.

conventional wisdom has been that Nina Turner and Shontel Brown are the front runners to win the special Democratic primary election. … In this case, conventional wisdom is only half right.

This time next week we’ll be talking only about those whose petitions have been found valid. We can consider that the end of the first quarter of this special primary season.

The pace of the contest will pick up considerably at that point. The halfway point will arrive around June 1. From there the pace will accelerate even faster. Early voting will begin July 7, signaling an all-out sprint to the Aug. 3 Election Day.

With that schedule in mind, here’s one reporter's assessment of how the candidates are doing as we approach the end of the first quarter.

Two editorial notes: First, we’ll be looking at the smaller Republican field later at the filing deadline, or just after. Second, we acknowledge that horserace analogies should not be the only way to report an election, and we promise to scrutinize the candidates from both platform and character considerations, keeping in mind that the candidate who runs the best race is not always the candidate who is likely to be the best public servant. That’s why you get to vote.

With that background, from Day 1 conventional wisdom has been that Nina Turner and Shontel Brown are the front runners to win the special Democratic primary election and become the next representative of the 11th Congressional District.

In this case, conventional wisdom is only half right.

Nina Turner has clearly established herself as the favorite. Her early fundraising lead has only increased since the start of the campaign. Today, it was announced the Turner team has made a $514,000 ad buy that will begin running on local television next week. Turner has raised the most money and has hit the ground running. She has a large staff. She’s already put out two mailers, double the number of the rest of the field {Flannery has put out one.] With a string of endorsements from local party stalwarts like Cleveland mayor Frank Jackson and Cleveland councilman Blaine Griffin, augmented by others [Kerry McCormack, Phyllis Cleveland, and likely more to come] Turner has effectively demolished the notion that she is far outside the party mainstream.

On the other hand, the co-frontrunner status accorded to Brown seems wholly unjustified, based upon her performance to date. Only her fundraising has been up to par, largely because it seems to have been forces that are more ABN [Anybody But Nina] than pro-Brown.

Otherwise, Brown’s campaign has thus far been desultory at best. She seems under the illusion that her status as county party chair is a signal accomplishment that the electorate knows and cares about. It is, of course, neither. It could have been a powerful platform that, along with her claimed insider relationship with Fudge, been used to concrete advantage. But Fudge left without endorsing her supposed protégé, or even contributing any of substantial campaign committee treasury. That support would now seem to be precluded by the Hatch Act.

Moreover, Brown managed to mangle her position as party chair: she failed to use its potential power to secure her own endorsement while subjecting herself to withering criticism by both her opponents and cleveland.com for failing to step aside.

Brown has not been much better on the stump. She’s been called out for reading her answers on several of the virtual candidate forums, fueling a widespread sense that her command of the issues is slight. And she has wasted precious time in separate online Q&A sessions with Woodmere Village mayor and former television journalist Ben Holbert and retired former local news political correspondent Tom Beres. An unabashed political supporter of Brown, Holbert tossed her softball questions. The quality of her answers to Beres’ more probing questions should make her glad that her audiences were miniscule.

Still, it’s only the first quarter, and Brown is not without assets. Much of the black clergy is in her corner, although their sway is debatable, especially during these COVID-times. And she is getting better at the dog and pony shows where she alternates 60- or 90- second answers with the other candidates.

Bottom line Q1 assessment on Brown: she’s lucky few voters have been paying attention thus far. But unless she gets better fast, she’s headed for a defeat so severe that it will jeopardize her prized status as county chair.

Several of the other candidates have shown themselves creditably thus far, though all are seriously handicapped by their lack of funding. Former state senators Jeff Johnson and Shirley Smith have thoughtful answers to most questions and could be seen plausibly as short-term answers for the balance of Fudge’s term. [Whoever wins will have to run next year in a district likely to be substantially different from its current contours. That will require a level of energy for which neither Smith, who is 70, nor Johnson, 63, is particularly noted.

By far the most energetic, and certainly the most entertaining candidate, is the youngest, Tarik K. Shabazz. The US Navy veteran, who got 2,813 votes to Fudge’s 70,379 when he challenged her in last year’s primary, has been irrepressible with his calls for reparations. He has a manner of presentation so engaging and personable that, even when he calls out his rivals and discounts both their platforms and their chances, they appear to enjoy him. This is not to imply Shabazz is a sort of campaign mascot. On the contrary, his repeated calls to both rivals and voters “look out your window” and see how terrible the socioeconomic conditions are in the District, get at the core of what’s at stake in this race even more so than do Turner’s canned comments about the U.S. as a “hegemon nation”. Shabazz is thinking big even where his inexperience shows, which makes him a valuable presence in this race.

Flannery is the race’s unicorn. He’s the only candidate from Summit County, the only one who’s been out of politics for nearly two decades; the only one, he likes to say, who wears a size 15 shoe. And incidentally or not, he is the only white candidate in the field.  While political rust has shown in his few campaign appearances to date, his policy positions mostly mirror the moderately liberal district. In Jerry Austin, Flannery does have by far the best and most experienced campaign manager. Most notably for this race, Austin was the 2008 campaign manager for Steve Cohen, Tennessee’s first Jewish Congressman, when Cohen won re-election in a crowded field with 24% of the vote in a majority black Memphis-area district.

Former state rep John Barnes rounds out the field. He seems unable to speak without affecting an air of self-importance that seems to suggest you should appreciate he’s in the race. He sued the local Democratic Party in 2013 so if he wins the primary, he will be entitled to several self-congratulatory rounds.

Louis Stokes was Congressman from Ohio's 11th District for 30 years.

Five final takeaways.

1. We suggested back in December that there would be an anybody but Nina candidate. The early choice was Shontel. If she continues unready for prime time, that money will look elsewhere. We’ll learn its destination in the second quarter of this race.
2. We hear rumors there will be an IE, or independent expenditures, campaign. That means money spent outside any candidate’s campaign by some unaffiliated group. The sum is reputedly a million dollars, and it will be aimed at defeating Nina.
3. Turner is still the presumptive favorite. Her campaign funding, grassroots support, and superior grasp of the issues all make her formidable. Even so, Turner too often exhibits manners that many find off-putting. While she has absolutely no need to prove her hometown roots, she sometimes presents herself without the refinement of the man whose public aura of grace set the bar for what district residents expect from their representative. This is of great concern to those who still recall The Gentleman from Ohio.
4. It’s not too early to think about turnout. We are talking about a special election under unprecedented conditions. It takes place in August when most voters will still be trying to adjust to a post-vaccine but still COVID-dominant world. Parts of the district have a miserable turnout record. Turner is expected to bring energy to the campaign. How will that affect turnout? A low or spotty turnout could find Johnson or Flannery the beneficiary.
5. Finally, a Jewish reader somewhat wryly lamented to me that candidate forum organizers should consider scheduling some of them on days other than on Saturday, the Jewish sabbath.

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Editor’s note: The original version of this article has been revised to remove a colloquialism that served as a lazy and imprecise statement of an important voter concern. We appreciate the feedback we received from several readers who felt we fell short of   our best standard.